SAF Doubles to 0.7% in 2025: The Slow Climb of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

In 2025, sustainable aviation fuel reached 0.7% of global jet fuel consumption—double the 2024 level. That number sounds tiny, and it is. But within the aviation industry, this modest milestone represents significant progress in the long march toward decarbonization.

Understanding SAF

Sustainable aviation fuel refers to jet fuel produced from sources other than petroleum. Feedstocks include used cooking oil, agricultural waste, municipal solid waste, and purpose-grown energy crops. The resulting fuel is chemically similar to conventional jet fuel and can be blended directly into existing fuel supplies.

The “sustainable” designation requires lifecycle greenhouse gas reductions of at least 50% compared to conventional jet fuel. Most approved SAF pathways achieve 60-80% reductions, with some next-generation processes promising even greater benefits.

Critically, SAF requires no modifications to existing aircraft or airport infrastructure. It’s a “drop-in” replacement that works in current engines and fuel systems—a major advantage over alternative technologies like hydrogen or electric propulsion that require entirely new aircraft designs.

The 0.7% Context

Global aviation consumes approximately 100 billion gallons of jet fuel annually. The 0.7% SAF share translates to roughly 700 million gallons—impressive growth from essentially zero a decade ago, but a fraction of what’s needed to meaningfully impact aviation emissions.

To reach net-zero by 2050, industry projections suggest SAF must represent 65% or more of total fuel consumption. The path from 0.7% to 65% requires exponential growth sustained over 25 years—a transformation without precedent in the fuel industry.

Production Challenges

SAF production faces multiple constraints. Feedstock availability limits current production—there’s simply not enough used cooking oil and agricultural waste to produce fuel at the scale aviation requires.

Production facilities require massive capital investment. Each new SAF refinery costs $500 million to $2 billion, and construction timelines stretch 3-5 years. The industry needs dozens of these facilities to meet 2030 targets.

Different production pathways have different characteristics. HEFA (Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids) technology using waste oils is most mature but feedstock-limited. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis can use broader feedstocks but at higher cost. Power-to-liquid processes using captured CO2 and renewable electricity offer the best sustainability profile but remain the most expensive.

The Price Premium

SAF currently costs 3-5 times more than conventional jet fuel. This premium represents the single largest barrier to adoption. Airlines operate on thin margins; absorbing fuel costs that triple overnight isn’t viable.

Prices are falling as production scales, but the trajectory must steepen dramatically. Most projections show SAF reaching cost parity with conventional fuel only around 2040-2045, assuming aggressive scaling and policy support.

Until then, mandates, incentives, and voluntary commitments drive adoption. The EU’s ReFuelEU regulation requires 2% SAF in flights departing European airports by 2025, rising to 70% by 2050. Similar mandates are emerging globally.

Airline Commitments

Major airlines have made ambitious SAF commitments, typically targeting 10% by 2030. United has invested in production facilities. Delta signed major offtake agreements. These forward contracts help secure financing for new production capacity.

Corporate travel programs increasingly specify SAF requirements. Microsoft, Google, and other tech giants have committed to purchasing SAF for employee travel. This book-and-claim system lets corporations fund SAF production even when the physical fuel is used elsewhere.

The Scaling Challenge

From 0.7% to meaningful impact requires solving multiple simultaneous challenges: securing sustainable feedstocks at scale, financing dozens of production facilities, reducing production costs, and creating policy frameworks that incentivize investment without distorting markets.

Each 1% of market share requires roughly 1 billion gallons annually. Reaching 10% by 2030 means building 10x current production capacity in five years—an unprecedented industrial mobilization.

Regional Variations

Europe leads in SAF adoption, driven by regulatory mandates and carbon pricing. The United States follows, with the Inflation Reduction Act providing significant production incentives. Asia-Pacific lags but is accelerating, with Singapore and Japan implementing support policies.

Supply concentrates in regions with production capacity. Airlines flying from SAF-abundant locations can meet mandates more easily; others may face shortages as requirements tighten.

What 0.7% Actually Means

Doubling SAF usage in a single year demonstrates that production can scale rapidly when investment flows. The infrastructure, logistics, and certification systems work. What’s needed is acceleration of a proven pathway, not technological breakthroughs.

But the math remains daunting. At current doubling rates, SAF would reach meaningful scale only after 2040. Achieving industry decarbonization targets requires even faster growth—a challenge that depends as much on policy and investment as on technology.

The Path Forward

The 0.7% milestone marks genuine progress in aviation’s sustainability journey. It proves that sustainable aviation fuel works, that production can scale, and that airlines will buy it when available.

What comes next determines whether aviation meets its climate commitments. The slow climb of SAF must become a rapid ascent—and the runway for that acceleration is shorter than most people realize.